It is noteworthy that this occurrence is not mere coincidence. In a previous article, we discussed the implications of misleading abortion polling results. The opening sentence of the article was as follows: “If there is any inviolable rule of thumb with regard to abortion polls, it is that one must delve deeply and read carefully.”
It is noteworthy that this occurred at this particular juncture in time. Today, Gallup released a poll on abortion, which was headlined “Majority in U.S. Still Want Abortion Legal, With Limits.” The poll was written by Lydia Saad.
One might be forgiven for thinking that the results were not as significant as they appeared to be at first glance.
1. Gallup has been commended on numerous occasions for its probing inquiries into the nuances of abortion and its willingness to pursue follow-up questions. In 2018, Gallup found that a total of 53% of respondents indicated that abortion should be legal in only a few circumstances (35%) or that it should be illegal in all circumstances (18%).
In the current year, Saad has observed that a total of 60% of respondents indicated a preference for abortion to be legal in only a few circumstances (39%) or to be illegal in all circumstances (21%).
This represents a significant increase of seven points.
2. One might inquire as to whether voting should be based on a candidate’s position on abortion.
It is important to note that the issue of abortion is not the sole factor influencing voter behaviour. This is a significant factor, but it is not the primary consideration. One might consider which side has experienced the greatest increase in the percentage of individuals who will only cast their vote for candidates who align with their views on abortion.
The following two quotations from Saad are presented in full.
Consistent with all previous Gallup trends on this issue, most Americans say abortion is not a deciding factor in their vote, but the percentage who say they would only vote for a candidate for major office who shares their views on abortion has risen slightly over the past decade. The figure is now 29%, compared with 20% when Gallup last asked this question in 2016 [note – an increase of 9 points in just three years], and a low of 13% in 2008.
Meanwhile, the percentages who say a candidate’s position on abortion is just one of many important issues they consider when voting, or that abortion is not important to their vote, have been trending downward – currently at 44% and 26%, respectively.
Not only is the overall percentage of Americans who say abortion is important to their vote at a record high, but the percentage among self-identified “pro-choice” and “pro-life” Americans is at a record high.
In order to proceed, it is necessary to provide a brief summary of the preceding arguments. A smaller proportion of respondents indicated that abortion is merely one of many important issues (or not at all important) and a larger proportion indicated that a candidate must agree with them on abortion. It is therefore necessary to enquire as to the beneficiaries of this situation. In his article, Saad writes:
Currently, 26% of pro-choice adults say they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion, up from 17% in 2016.
However, the issue remains more important to pro-life than pro-choice adults as a voting issue, as it has been in every Gallup measure since 2004. Thirty-five percent of pro-life adults now say they will only vote for candidates who share their views on the issue, up from 23% in 2016.
It is important to note that in 2016, a greater proportion of pro-life adults (23%) than pro-choice adults (17%) indicated that they would only vote for a candidate who shared their views on abortion. This represents a six-point advantage in favour of those with pro-life views.
However, in 2019 the disparity is even more pronounced, with a 35% to 26% difference, representing a nine-point advantage.
The third point is as follows: One might also consider the issue of self-identification. The proportion of individuals self-identifying as pro-choice fluctuates, but the overall trend is that in 1996, 56% of respondents identified as pro-choice, while only 37% identified as pro-life. As recently as 2015, 50% of respondents identified as pro-choice, while 44% identified as pro-life, according to Gallup.
In the year 2018, 48% of respondents indicated that they were pro-life, while 48% indicated that they were pro-choice. The results were evenly balanced.
In 2019, 49% of respondents identified as pro-life, while 46% identified as pro-choice.
A cursory examination of the headline and the manner in which the results are presented by Gallup would lead one to believe that the findings are not particularly encouraging. However, a closer analysis reveals that this year’s results are in fact quite encouraging.
Daniel Miller is responsible for nearly all of National Right to Life News' political writing.
With the election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, Daniel Miller developed a deep obsession with U.S. politics that has never let go of the political scientist. Whether it's the election of Joe Biden, the midterm elections in Congress, the abortion rights debate in the Supreme Court or the mudslinging in the primaries - Daniel Miller is happy to stay up late for you.
Daniel was born and raised in New York. After living in China, working for a news agency and another stint at a major news network, he now lives in Arizona with his two daughters.
