In the event of an unanticipated turn of events, it is my practice to seek the most plausible explanation. The most notable surprise this year is the race for governor of Kentucky, where the incumbent pro-abortion Governor Andy Beshear was far ahead of the pro-life Attorney General Daniel Cameron until the latest poll came out.
Last month, an Emerson College poll had Beshear up by a significant margin of 16 points. However, a poll last week had them tied at 47% each.
What can explain Cameron’s narrowing of the gap to within 16 points in a single month? As we discussed on Friday, Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said:
Mr. Cameron has gained ground by consolidating Republican voters who supported former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election. In OCTOBER, 54% of Trump supporters indicated support for Cameron. As election day approaches, that number has jumped to 79%, representing a 25-point increase. It is worth noting that the October poll was of registered voters in Kentucky, while this final election poll includes only those who are very likely or have already voted in Kentucky.
It is evident that this is a contributing factor, however Matt Margolis posits that a familiarity with Beshear’s track record would have dissuaded observers from overrating him.
For instance, in 2019, Beshear defeated the incumbent by a narrow margin of less than one percentage point. Has there been a sudden change in voter preferences in Kentucky, with a shift towards Democratic candidates?
Mr. Margolis stated that this was an illogical conclusion.
A comprehensive review of the available evidence revealed a different picture. Mr. Beshear won by a narrow margin of 0.4 points, while all of the other five statewide elections were won by the Republican Party, with four of them being won by double digits. Kentucky was no more likely to become a blue state than Massachusetts was to become a red state when it elected and reelected Republican Charlie Baker as governor.
Clearly, Cameron had momentum. Writing in the Washington Examiner, Salena Zito concluded
“Even before the new Emerson College poll came out Friday morning, the ground was shifting in Daniel Cameron’s favour across the state in the Republican Kentucky attorney general’s race against incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) for the state’s highest office.”
Zito concludes
There is a pretty good chance that much of the national press will wake up Wednesday morning and ask, once again, “What happened?”
You can read more about why and how the momentum shifted at the Washington Examiner.
Daniel Miller is responsible for nearly all of National Right to Life News' political writing.
With the election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, Daniel Miller developed a deep obsession with U.S. politics that has never let go of the political scientist. Whether it's the election of Joe Biden, the midterm elections in Congress, the abortion rights debate in the Supreme Court or the mudslinging in the primaries - Daniel Miller is happy to stay up late for you.
Daniel was born and raised in New York. After living in China, working for a news agency and another stint at a major news network, he now lives in Arizona with his two daughters.
